The probability of Donald Trump winning the election on the Polymarket platform has risen to 58.9%, while the probability of Kamala Harris winning the election has dropped to 41.1%. Trump, thus, is now leading Harris by over 16 percentage points.
The Presidential Election Winner bet on Polymarket has amassed a market volume of over $3 billion now.
When it comes to probabilities of victory on other market prediction platforms like Kalshi, Trump’s odds at 56.9% are leading that of Kamala Harris’ at 43.1%. Kalshi also shows Kamala leading in two swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin respectively.
Kalshi also shows the probability of Republicans winning Senate elections stands at 80%, and Democrats lead at 52% when it comes to the party that can win the house. As of November 3, 75 million voters in the US have already voted either in person early or by mail-in ballots. This figure is, however, equivalent to half of all votes cast in the 2020 US election.
Among the early voters in the US this year, 37.9% are registered as Democrats and 36.2% are registered as Republicans.
In 2020, a total of 155 million American voters participated in the election. Notably, early voting schedules differs across US states and territories, and so far, in at least 9 states, over half of eligible voters have already voted early.
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